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Almeria 2–2 Eibar

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 22, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Dámaso Arcediano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win51%1.88
Draw27%3.67
Eibar win22%4.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria −0.552%1.88
Eibar −0.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.93
Under50%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨José Corpas · Eibar
25'⚽ (og)Edgar González · Eibar
37'🟨Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar
55'⚽Xeber Alkain · Eibar
57'⚽Nicolás Melamed · Almeria
69'🟨Edgar González · Almeria
70'🟨Sergio Álvarez · Eibar
75'🟨Nicolás Melamed · Almeria
80'⚽Rachad Dhimi · Almeria
90'🟨Chumi · Almeria
90'🟨Dion Lopy · Almeria
90'🟨Sergio Álvarez · Eibar
90'🟥Sergio Álvarez · Eibar

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots8
5On target2
9Corners3
15Fouls18
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaEibar
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.590.74
cards avg (last 5)1.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePower Horse Stadium
coach days113.00449.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.12
corner diff avg (last 5)4.800.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)7.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.102.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.08
dominance (last 5)0.640.51
elo1482.461582.21
elo momentum (last 5)-31.8416.87
eye test v10.57-0.23
eye trend v1-0.17-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)60.6060.80
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.701.23
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.670.72
league points6.0011.00
league rank16.005.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2074.40
possession avg (last 5)57.0049.20
rest days6.028.20
scorer concentration—0.50
season ppg1.002.20
shot diff avg (last 5)8.602.60
shots for avg (last 5)18.6014.40
skill v10.81-0.32
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.204.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.80
squad age23.2926.64
state index-0.470.37
sterile dominance v1-0.14-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.320.25
threat rate (last 3)0.340.24
threat rate (last 5)0.330.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20