⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Cartagena 1–2 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 22, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Andrés Fuentes

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win43%2.24
Draw31%3.10
Cartagena win25%3.91

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz +0.2552%1.89
Cartagena +0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under66%1.45
Over34%2.89

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Chris Ramos · Cadiz
30'🟨Andrija Vukčević · Cartagena
32'🟨Luis Muñoz · Cartagena
37'🟨Brian Ocampo · Cadiz
45'🟨Gonzalo Escalante · Cadiz
59'⚽Luis Muñoz · Cartagena
77'🟨Rominigue Kouamé · Cadiz
80'⚽Chris Ramos · Cadiz
90'🟨Damian Musto · Cartagena
90'🟨Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots13
4On target6
10Corners9
16Fouls11
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCartagenaCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.39
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.05
box share (last 5)0.680.80
cards avg (last 5)2.403.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal Cartagonova
coach days21.0083.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.601.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.603.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.004.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.271.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.22
dominance (last 5)0.410.47
elo1437.961528.55
elo momentum (last 5)-24.84-16.92
eye test v1-0.81-0.02
eye trend v10.44-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)59.7055.60
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.99
h2 goals (last 10)—0.70
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.15
keeper form v10.790.73
league points3.006.00
league rank22.0014.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet8.000.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4076.60
possession avg (last 5)40.2052.80
rest days7.006.91
season ppg0.601.20
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.80-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.2011.00
skill v1-0.990.11
sot against avg (last 5)7.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.404.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.20
squad age—28.22
state index-0.69-0.28
sterile dominance v1-0.400.32
threat rate (last 10)0.190.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.22
threat rate (last 5)0.210.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40