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Zaragoza 2–1 Levante UD

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Rafael Sánchez

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win41%2.35
Draw30%3.25
Levante UD win29%3.42

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD −0.2551%1.91
Zaragoza −0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.80
Over46%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽ (pen)Mario Soberón · Zaragoza
22'🟨Adrián de la Fuente · Levante UD
40'⚽José Luis Morales · Levante UD
67'🟨Toni Moya · Zaragoza
85'⚽Samed Baždar · Zaragoza
88'🟨Unai Elgezabal · Levante UD

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
19Shots13
6On target4
4Corners8
17Fouls10
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaLevante UD
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.54
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.51
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.560.62
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de la Romareda
coach days204.00112.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.633.86
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.08
dominance (last 5)0.550.50
elo1512.221579.08
elo momentum (last 5)38.7634.66
eye test v10.601.03
eye trend v1-0.420.30
first sub minute (last 10)55.6058.80
form points (last 5)10.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.830.81
league points10.0014.00
league rank5.002.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0080.00
possession avg (last 5)49.6046.40
rest days6.107.20
scorer concentration0.440.22
season ppg2.002.33
shot diff avg (last 5)2.40-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.8014.40
skill v1-0.050.01
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.105.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.606.00
squad age—27.11
state index0.500.62
sterile dominance v1-0.32-0.47
threat rate (last 10)0.310.26
threat rate (last 3)0.290.28
threat rate (last 5)0.280.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.20