← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: José Sánchez
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Draw | 34% | 2.88 |
| Oviedo win | 34% | 2.95 |
| Eldense win | 32% | 3.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Oviedo +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Eldense +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 66% | 1.47 |
| Over | 34% | 2.85 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat |