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Granada 2–2 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Fri, Sep 20, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Iosu Galech

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win55%1.73
Draw25%3.76
Málaga CF win19%5.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF −0.7551%1.93
Granada −0.7549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Manu Trigueros · Granada
56'⚽Carlos Neva · Granada
60'⚽Antonio Cordero · Málaga CF
74'🟨Miguel Rubio · Granada
77'⚽Myrto Uzuni · Granada
79'🟨Sergio Castel Martínez · Málaga CF
82'🟨Luismi · Málaga CF
89'🟨Daniel Sánchez · Málaga CF
90'🟨Theo Corbeanu · Granada
90'🟨Nélson Monte · Málaga CF
90'🟨Chupete

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots13
6On target5
5Corners7
18Fouls14
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.770.60
cards avg (last 5)3.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Los Cármenes
· Málaga CF
90'⚽Nélson Monte · Málaga CF
coach days19.00628.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.203.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.472.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.07
dominance (last 5)0.530.42
elo1477.021459.35
elo momentum (last 5)-19.4719.26
eye test v10.36-0.63
eye trend v10.070.26
first sub minute (last 10)52.2049.30
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.530.72
league points5.009.00
league rank15.007.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.6080.80
possession avg (last 5)55.0053.20
rest days4.986.08
scorer concentration0.20—
season ppg1.001.80
shot diff avg (last 5)2.20-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.409.00
skill v10.810.53
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.80
squad age26.06—
state index-0.52-0.07
sterile dominance v10.530.73
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.230.24
threat rate (last 5)0.240.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.00