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Almeria 2–5 Castellon

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Mon, Sep 16, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win50%1.93
Draw25%4.00
Castellon win25%4.04

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria −0.551%1.91
Castellon −0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.61
Under40%2.43

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Óscar Gil · Castellon
40'🟨Jozhua Vertrouwd · Castellon
43'⚽Raúl Sánchez · Castellon
62'⚽Thomas Van den Belt · Castellon
66'🟨Daijiro Chirino · Castellon
69'⚽Jesús de Miguel · Castellon
72'⚽Nicolás Melamed · Almeria
76'⚽Israel Suero · Castellon
81'⚽ (pen)Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria
82'⚽Jesús de Miguel · Castellon
85'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
17Shots10
5On target7
5Corners4
7Fouls11
0Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaCastellon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.180.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.590.63
cards avg (last 5)1.400.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePower Horse Stadium
Thomas Van den Belt
· Castellon
coach days107.00473.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05—
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.08—
corner diff avg (last 5)5.00—
corners against avg (last 5)2.80—
corners for avg (last 5)7.80—
corners volatility (last 10)3.303.02
defensive leak (last 5)0.10—
dominance (last 5)0.65—
elo1507.831399.64
elo momentum (last 5)-4.93-5.11
eye test v11.06-0.03
eye trend v1-0.660.55
first sub minute (last 10)58.9061.10
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.710.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.20—
ht lead rate (last 20)0.20—
keeper form v10.700.75
league points6.004.00
league rank13.0018.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.4079.20
possession avg (last 5)56.4060.40
rest days8.086.98
season ppg1.201.00
shot diff avg (last 5)10.20—
shots for avg (last 5)20.60—
skill v10.970.84
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.603.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.004.20
squad age23.29—
state index-0.05-0.66
sterile dominance v1-0.370.83
threat rate (last 10)0.320.23
threat rate (last 3)0.310.26
threat rate (last 5)0.370.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.60