← Segunda División 2024-25 · Mon, Sep 16, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel González
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 50% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 |
| Castellon win | 25% | 4.04 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Castellon −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.61 |
| Under | 40% | 2.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Óscar Gil · Castellon |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jozhua Vertrouwd · Castellon |
| 43' | ⚽ | Raúl Sánchez · Castellon |
| 62' | ⚽ | Thomas Van den Belt · Castellon |
| 66' | 🟨 | Daijiro Chirino · Castellon |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jesús de Miguel · Castellon |
| 72' | ⚽ | Nicolás Melamed · Almeria |
| 76' | ⚽ | Israel Suero · Castellon |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria |
| 82' | ⚽ | Jesús de Miguel · Castellon |
| 85' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Castellon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Power Horse Stadium |
| coach days | 107.00 | 473.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | — |
| elo | 1507.83 | 1399.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.93 | -5.11 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 8.08 | 6.98 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.20 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.60 | — |
| skill v1 | 0.97 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.29 | — |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |