← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 15, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: José Guzmán
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos win | 37% | 2.74 |
| Zaragoza win | 32% | 3.06 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Zaragoza +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.53 |
| Over | 37% | 2.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 46' | 🟨 | Toni Moya · Zaragoza |
| 83' | 🟨 | Fernando Niño · Burgos |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sebastian Kóša · Zaragoza |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ian Forns · Burgos |
| 87' | 🟨 | Miguel Atienza · Burgos |
| 90' | 🟨 | Samed Baždar · Zaragoza |
| 90' | ⚽ | Álex Sancris · Burgos |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burgos | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de El Plantío |
| coach days | 472.00 | 198.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.56 |
| elo | 1476.51 | 1521.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.02 | 46.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.84 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |