← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Palencia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 50% | 60% | 1.98 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Eldense win | 22% | 15% | 4.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eldense −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Levante UD −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.71 |
| Over | 44% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Marc Mateu · Eldense |
| 28' | 🟨 | Oriol Rey · Levante UD |
| 28' | 🟨 | Alan Godoy · Eldense |
| 37' | 🟥 | Sergio Ortuño · Eldense |
| 41' | ⚽ | Ivan Chapela · Eldense |
| 44' | ⚽ | Pablo Martínez · Levante UD |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andrés García · Levante UD |
| 45' | 🟨 | David Timor · Eldense |
| 45' | 🟨 | David Timor · Eldense |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ian Mackay Abad · Eldense |
| 45' | 🟥 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Eldense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.60 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |
| David Timor · Eldense |
| 74' | 🟨 | Nacho Quintana · Eldense |
| 74' | ⚽ | Carlos Espí · Levante UD |
| 81' | ⚽ | Carlos Álvarez · Levante UD |
| 87' | 🟨 | Iñigo Sebastián Magana · Eldense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 105.00 | 75.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1610.93 | 1465.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.89 | 14.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.83 |
| league points | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.86 | 30.63 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |