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Levante UD 3–1 Eldense

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Palencia

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD win50%1.98
Draw28%3.50
Eldense win22%4.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eldense −0.551%1.92
Levante UD −0.549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.71
Over44%2.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Marc Mateu · Eldense
28'🟨Oriol Rey · Levante UD
28'🟨Alan Godoy · Eldense
37'🟥Sergio Ortuño · Eldense
41'⚽Ivan Chapela · Eldense
44'⚽Pablo Martínez · Levante UD
45'🟨Andrés García · Levante UD
45'🟨David Timor · Eldense
45'🟨David Timor · Eldense
45'🟨Ian Mackay Abad · Eldense
45'🟥David Timor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
26Shots5
6On target3
10Corners2
13Fouls8
2Yellow cards7
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLevante UDEldense
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.600.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.530.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05—
box share (last 5)0.610.57
cards avg (last 5)1.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ciudad de Valencia
· Eldense
74'🟨Nacho Quintana · Eldense
74'⚽Carlos Espí · Levante UD
81'⚽Carlos Álvarez · Levante UD
87'🟨Iñigo Sebastián Magana · Eldense
coach days105.0075.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05—
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.18—
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.602.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.005.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.442.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.06—
dominance (last 5)0.41—
elo1570.931459.74
elo momentum (last 5)17.8110.71
eye test v10.730.21
eye trend v10.470.43
first sub minute (last 10)57.9060.00
form points (last 5)11.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.88
h2 goals (last 10)1.00—
ht lead rate (last 20)0.30—
keeper form v10.820.83
league points11.008.00
league rank2.006.00
matches since blank5.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2075.40
possession avg (last 5)44.4048.40
rest days6.005.91
scorer concentration0.33—
season ppg2.201.60
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.20—
shots for avg (last 5)12.00—
skill v1-0.19-0.28
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.90
sot for avg (last 3)6.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.605.00
squad age26.91—
state index0.16-0.04
sterile dominance v1-0.30-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.260.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.80