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Málaga CF 2–1 Albacete

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 31, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Palencia

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win41%2.36
Draw31%3.10
Albacete win28%3.65

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete −0.2551%1.92
Málaga CF −0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.56
Over38%2.54

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽José Carlos Lazo · Albacete
14'⚽Dioni · Málaga CF
16'🟨Dani Lorenzo · Málaga CF
17'🟨Antonio Cordero · Málaga CF
28'🟨Juan Antonio Ros · Albacete
39'🟥Álex Pastor · Málaga CF
39'🟨Jaume Costa · Albacete
73'🟨Manu Molina · Málaga CF
78'🟨Juan María Alcedo · Albacete
90'🟨Javier Rueda · Albacete
90'⚽ (pen)Antonio Cordero

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
16Shots16
6On target7
8Corners1
17Fouls20
3Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.650.68
cards avg (last 5)1.001.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio La Rosaleda
· Málaga CF
coach days608.00183.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.10—
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)2.606.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.843.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.16—
dominance (last 5)0.42—
elo1441.271500.88
elo momentum (last 5)6.5117.50
eye test v1-0.51-0.17
eye trend v1-0.20-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)46.6059.70
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.40—
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.20—
keeper form v10.630.83
matches since blank5.0018.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2079.00
possession avg (last 5)56.2044.20
rest days7.006.10
season ppg1.003.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60—
shots for avg (last 5)9.20—
skill v10.85-0.22
sot against avg (last 5)3.406.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.60
state index-0.310.32
sterile dominance v10.94-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.200.25
threat rate (last 3)0.130.25
threat rate (last 5)0.190.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.20