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Cadiz 2–2 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 31, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Salvador Lax

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win54%1.79
Draw29%3.40
Tenerife win18%5.49

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife −0.7553%1.85
Cadiz −0.7547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.53
Over37%2.63

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Javier Ontiveros · Cadiz
26'⚽Youssouf Diarra · Tenerife
45'🟨Brian Ocampo · Cadiz
52'🟨Rubén Alcaraz · Cadiz
54'⚽Luismi Cruz · Tenerife
66'🟨Tomeu Nadal · Tenerife
70'🟨Iván Alejo · Cadiz
72'🟨Álex Fernández · Cadiz
74'⚽ (pen)Álex Fernández · Cadiz
82'🟨Tomás Alarcón · Cadiz
90'🟨Álejandro Cantero

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
4Shots3
3On target2
3Corners4
5Fouls9
6Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.650.63
cards avg (last 5)3.200.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Mirandilla
· Tenerife
90'⚽Francisco Mwepu · Cadiz
coach days61.0030.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.09
corner diff avg (last 5)3.40-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.206.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.603.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.951.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.13
dominance (last 5)0.480.40
elo1522.811465.98
elo momentum (last 5)-30.55-19.17
eye test v10.30-0.03
eye trend v1-0.010.55
first sub minute (last 10)56.7050.20
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.520.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
keeper form v10.740.64
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.006.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4077.00
possession avg (last 5)52.6047.20
rest days7.006.90
season ppg0.500.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.80-5.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.0011.40
skill v10.45-0.21
sot against avg (last 5)6.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
squad age28.22—
state index-0.62-0.56
sterile dominance v10.15-0.24
threat rate (last 10)0.270.22
threat rate (last 3)0.220.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80