⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Cadiz 0–4 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Fri, Aug 16, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Dámaso Arcediano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win48%2.09
Draw31%3.20
Zaragoza win21%4.47

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza −0.553%1.83
Cadiz −0.547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under70%1.37
Over30%3.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz
14'⚽Mario Soberón · Zaragoza
35'🟨Bernardo Vital · Zaragoza
43'⚽Mario Soberón · Zaragoza
45'🟨Fali · Cadiz
65'🟨Sergio Bermejo · Zaragoza
84'⚽Ager Aketxe · Zaragoza
90'🟨Brian Ocampo · Cadiz
90'⚽Marcos Luna · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
13Shots12
3On target9
6Corners0
14Fouls21
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.650.70
cards avg (last 5)2.800.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Mirandilla
coach days46.00168.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.07
corner diff avg (last 5)2.800.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.606.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.163.68
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.14
dominance (last 5)0.450.58
elo1545.471473.46
elo momentum (last 5)0.50-4.95
eye test v10.080.22
eye trend v10.18-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)53.4056.00
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.520.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
keeper form v10.710.69
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4071.20
possession avg (last 5)44.0043.40
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.604.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.2015.40
skill v1-0.28-0.98
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.60
squad age28.22—
state index-0.06-0.03
sterile dominance v1-0.52-1.29
threat rate (last 10)0.280.32
threat rate (last 3)0.290.36
threat rate (last 5)0.280.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40