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Granada 1–2 Albacete

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Thu, Aug 15, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Saúl Ais

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win48%2.09
Draw29%3.40
Albacete win23%4.33

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete −0.553%1.83
Granada −0.547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.70
Over43%2.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Kamil Jóźwiak · Granada
20'🟨Miguel Rubio · Granada
26'🟨Riki Rodríguez · Albacete
28'🟨Juan Antonio Ros · Albacete
29'⚽Miguel Rubio · Granada
42'⚽Jon Morcillo · Albacete
45'🟨Myrto Uzuni · Granada
45'🟨Martin Hongla · Granada
45'🟨Sergio Ruiz Alonso · Granada
45'⚽ (pen)Higinio Marín · Albacete
69'🟨Agus Medina

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
22Shots9
10On target3
9Corners5
10Fouls11
6Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.210.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.540.78
cards avg (last 5)3.000.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Los Cármenes
· Albacete
90'🟨Carlos Neva · Granada
coach days45.00167.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.04—
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.003.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.163.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.28—
dominance (last 5)0.44—
elo1496.491481.35
elo momentum (last 5)-33.0319.90
eye test v1-0.99-0.35
eye trend v10.200.04
first sub minute (last 10)54.7062.80
form points (last 5)0.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-3.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)3.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.40—
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.25—
keeper form v10.570.73
matches since blank0.0016.00
matches since clean sheet5.003.00
matches since win5.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6080.60
possession avg (last 5)46.0048.00
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.00—
shots for avg (last 5)10.20—
skill v1-0.050.18
sot against avg (last 5)7.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.204.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.003.40
squad age26.06—
state index-1.050.14
sterile dominance v1-0.040.61
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.230.18
threat rate (last 5)0.240.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60