← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 5, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: V. Crezzini
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Palermo win | 60% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.75 |
| Avellino win | 16% | 6.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Avellino −1 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Palermo −1 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Renzo Barbera |