← Serie B 2025-26 · Fri, Jan 16, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luca Sacchi, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sampdoria win | 49% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
| Virtus Entella win | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Virtus Entella −0.5 | 52% | 1.83 |
| Sampdoria −0.5 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 25 | Fouls | 30 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Luigi Ferraris |