← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 27, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Luca Zufferli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 37% | 2.50 |
| Avellino win | 31% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 31% | 2.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Avellino −0.25 | 56% | 1.68 |
| Bari −0.25 | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over | 40% | 2.35 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Tommaso Cancellotti · Avellino |
| 50' | 🟨 | Filippo Missori · Avellino |
| 52' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Dickmann · Bari |
| 66' | 🟨 | Matthias Braunöder · Bari |
| 68' | ⚽ | Tommaso Biasci · Avellino |
| 88' | 🟨 | Raffaele Pucino · Bari |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michele Cerofolini · Bari |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francesco Patierno · Avellino |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 23 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | Avellino |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio San Nicola |
| coach days | 148.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.62 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1412.43 | 1399.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.74 | -2.28 |
| eye test v1 | -1.12 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 47.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 16.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |