← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Di Marco, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Venezia FC win | 64% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.00 |
| Virtus Entella win | 13% | 7.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Venezia FC −1 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Virtus Entella −1 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Pierluigi Penzo |