← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Valerio Crezzini, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro win | 38% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 31% | 2.95 |
| Cesena win | 30% | 3.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cesena −0.25 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Catanzaro −0.25 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Jacopo Petriccione · Catanzaro |
| 26' | ⚽ | Pietro Iemmello · Catanzaro |
| 42' | 🟨 | Giovanni Zaro · Cesena |
| 52' | 🟨 | Dimitri Bisoli · Cesena |
| 53' | ⚽ | Filippo Pittarello · Catanzaro |
| 73' | 🟨 | Tommaso Cassandro · Catanzaro |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Catanzaro | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Nicola Ceravolo |
| coach days | 179.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1518.51 | 1505.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.18 | 3.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.40 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| league points | 28.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | 0.69 |
| solidity v1 | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.90 |