← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Matteo Marcenaro, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carrarese win | 49% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
| Mantova win | 24% | 3.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mantova −0.5 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Carrarese −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Alessio Castellini · Mantova |
| 34' | 🟨 | Fabio Abiuso · Carrarese |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nicolò Calabrese · Carrarese |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolò Radaelli · Mantova |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carrarese | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio dei Marmi |
| coach days | 726.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1438.10 | 1380.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.30 | -11.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.30 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| league points | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | 1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.15 | 26.39 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |