← Serie B 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 26, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Bonacina, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 37% | 2.50 |
| AC Monza win | 31% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 31% | 2.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza −0.25 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Modena −0.25 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.60 |
| Over | 41% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Davide Adorni · Modena |
| 18' | 🟨 | Keita Baldé · AC Monza |
| 39' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Ettore Gliozzi · Modena |
| 44' | 🟨 | Francesco Zampano · Modena |
| 44' | 🟨 | Matteo Pessina · AC Monza |
| 50' | ⚽ | Paulo Azzi · AC Monza |
| 65' | ⚽ | Luca Ravanelli · AC Monza |
| 87' | 🟨 | Patrick Ciurria · AC Monza |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gady Beyuku · Modena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Tonoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | AC Monza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| coach days | 178.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1503.08 | 1575.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.00 | -2.65 |
| eye test v1 | 1.20 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| league points | 29.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 6.09 | 6.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | 0.73 |
| solidity v1 | -0.19 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.74 | 29.03 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 0.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.16 | 2.13 |