← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 21, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mantova win | 38% | 2.45 |
| Empoli win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mantova +0 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Empoli +0 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | David Wieser · Mantova |
| 39' | 🟨 | Gabriele Guarino · Empoli |
| 41' | 🟨 | César Falletti · Mantova |
| 63' | 🟨 | Francesco Ruocco · Mantova |
| 63' | 🟨 | Salvatore Elia · Empoli |
| 67' | ⚽ | Marco Nasti · Empoli |
| 68' | 🟨 | Marco Nasti · Empoli |
| 88' | 🟨 | Simone Trimboli · Mantova |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mantova | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Danilo Martelli |
| coach days | 142.00 | 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 1.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1391.93 | 1494.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.73 | 3.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.91 | 8.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | 0.03 |
| solidity v1 | -1.11 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.16 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.62 |