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Pescara 2–1 Reggiana

← Serie B 2025-26 Β· Sat, Dec 20, 06:30 PM UTC Β· ref: Ermanno Feliciani, Italy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pescara win40%2.30
Reggiana win30%3.05
Draw29%3.20

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggiana βˆ’0.2552%1.83
Pescara βˆ’0.2548%1.98

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.70
Over45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Paolo Rozzio · Reggiana
4'🟨Andreaw Gravillon · Pescara
11'⚽Tommaso Corazza · Pescara
15'⚽Matteo Rover · Reggiana
45'🟨Manolo Portanova · Reggiana
48'🟨Francesco Vallarelli · Reggiana
54'🟨Andrea Bozzolan · Reggiana
61'⚽Giacomo Olzer · Pescara

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
19Shots8
10On target4
8Corners5
14Fouls17
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPescaraReggiana
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.00
box share (last 5)0.530.65
cards avg (last 5)2.202.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia
coach days141.00294.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.007.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.922.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.06
dominance (last 5)0.480.46
elo1309.051428.55
elo momentum (last 5)-12.65-13.00
eye test v10.24-0.10
eye trend v10.450.20
first sub minute (last 10)45.7055.20
form points (last 5)2.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.670.64
league points10.0020.00
league rank20.0012.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet12.001.00
matches since win12.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8078.00
possession avg (last 5)44.2041.20
rest days6.097.19
scorer concentration0.260.17
season ppg0.631.25
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.0011.60
skill v1-0.27-0.45
solidity v1-1.390.56
sot against avg (last 5)6.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.00
state index-1.29-0.33
sterile dominance v1-0.90-0.75
threat rate (last 10)0.320.25
threat rate (last 3)0.420.31
threat rate (last 5)0.330.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.40
xg against avg (last 5)2.051.29
xg for avg (last 5)1.241.26