← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Simone Galipo, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 54% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| Avellino win | 20% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Palermo +0.5 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Avellino +0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Palermo |
| 39' | ⚽ | Tommaso Biasci · Avellino |
| 56' | 🟨 | Luca Palmiero · Avellino |
| 61' | 🟨 | Lorenco Šimić · Avellino |
| 69' | ⚽ | Filippo Ranocchia · Palermo |
| 75' | 🟨 | Salim Diakité · Palermo |
| 76' | 🟨 | Martin Palumbo · Avellino |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alessandro Fontanarosa · Avellino |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Joel Pohjanpalo · Palermo |
| 87' | 🟨 | Salim Diakité · Palermo |
| 87' | 🟥 | Salim Diakité · Palermo |
| 89' | ⚽ | Martin Palumbo · Avellino |
| 90' | 🟨 | Claudio Gomes · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Avellino | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi |
| coach days | 141.00 | 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1397.41 | 1537.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.42 | 24.52 |
| eye test v1 | -1.29 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.70 | 40.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.93 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| league points | 20.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | 0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -0.75 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.88 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.66 | 2.05 |