← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Giovanni Ayroldi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 37% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 31% | 2.95 |
| Padova win | 31% | 2.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria +0 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Padova +0 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Massimo Coda · Sampdoria |
| 24' | 🟨 | Liam Henderson · Sampdoria |
| 30' | 🟨 | Francesco Conti · Sampdoria |
| 35' | 🟨 | Pietro Fusi · Padova |
| 65' | ⚽ | Pietro Fusi · Padova |
| 67' | 🟨 | Papu Gómez · Padova |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Padova | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Euganeo |
| coach days | 567.00 | 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1428.31 | 1402.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| league points | 21.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | 0.18 |
| solidity v1 | -0.27 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 22.98 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.04 |