← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Perenzoni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza win | 60% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.80 |
| Carrarese win | 15% | 6.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carrarese −1 | 53% | 1.78 |
| AC Monza −1 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Samuele Birindelli · AC Monza |
| 13' | 🟨 | Gabriele Parlanti · Carrarese |
| 40' | 🟨 | Simone Zanon · Carrarese |
| 42' | 🟨 | Julián Illanes · Carrarese |
| 44' | ⚽ | Filippo Delli Carri · AC Monza |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nicolas Schiavi · Carrarese |
| 55' | ⚽ | Samuele Birindelli · AC Monza |
| 74' | ⚽ | Filippo Di Stefano · Carrarese |
| 84' | ⚽ | Andrea Petagna · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Brianteo |
| coach days | 172.00 | 719.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1536.08 | 1441.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.56 | -17.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| league points | 31.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 0.32 |
| solidity v1 | 0.69 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 2.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.33 |