← Serie B 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 19, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Rapuano, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro win | 41% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 31% | 2.95 |
| Bari win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bari +0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Catanzaro +0.25 | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Simone Pontisso · Catanzaro |
| 46' | 🟨 | Costantino Favasuli · Catanzaro |
| 49' | ⚽ | Matias Antonini · Catanzaro |
| 77' | 🟨 | Dimitris Nikolaou · Bari |
| 82' | 🟨 | Nicolò Brighenti · Catanzaro |
| 86' | 🟨 | Fabio Rispoli · Catanzaro |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicola Bellomo · Bari |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Stadio San Nicola |
| coach days | 140.00 | 171.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1421.64 | 1509.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.02 | 7.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 45.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 16.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 6.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | 0.84 |
| solidity v1 | -0.59 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.87 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.14 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.40 |