← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carrarese win | 45% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| Virtus Entella win | 26% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carrarese −0.25 | 52% | 1.83 |
| Virtus Entella −0.25 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | 🟨 | Ivan Marconi · Virtus Entella |
| 56' | ⚽ | Nicolas Schiavi · Carrarese |
| 57' | 🟨 | Stefano Di Mario · Virtus Entella |
| 59' | 🟨 | Denis Portanova · Virtus Entella |
| 70' | ⚽ | Fabio Ruggeri · Carrarese |
| 72' | ⚽ | Fabio Abiuso · Carrarese |
| 75' | ⚽ | Alessandro Debenedetti · Virtus Entella |
| 86' | 🟨 | Julián Illanes · Carrarese |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carrarese | Virtus Entella |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio dei Marmi |
| coach days | 713.00 | 166.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 4.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1433.65 | 1309.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.03 | 10.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| league points | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 6.81 | 5.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 0.04 |
| solidity v1 | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.16 | 2.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.49 |