← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Rapuano, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 55% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| Mantova win | 19% | 5.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mantova −0.75 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Cesena −0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Francesco Ruocco · Mantova |
| 25' | ⚽ | Federico Artioli · Mantova |
| 42' | ⚽ | Cristian Shpendi · Cesena |
| 54' | ⚽ (og) | Alessio Castellini · Cesena |
| 56' | 🟨 | Federico Artioli · Mantova |
| 73' | 🟨 | Giovanni Zaro · Cesena |
| 78' | ⚽ | Gianluca Frabotta · Cesena |
| 80' | 🟨 | Gianluca Frabotta · Cesena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cesena | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Dino Manuzzi |
| coach days | 134.00 | 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1503.11 | 1397.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.30 | 22.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| league points | 27.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 5.19 | 5.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 1.10 |
| solidity v1 | 0.79 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | 1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.58 |