← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Giuseppe Collu, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol win | 51% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Bari win | 21% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol −0.5 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Bari −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Hamza El Kaouakibi · Sudtirol |
| 6' | 🟨 | Matthias Verreth · Bari |
| 25' | 🟥 | Simone Tronchin · Sudtirol |
| 34' | 🟨 | Karim Zedadka · Sudtirol |
| 61' | 🟨 | Anthony Partipilo · Bari |
| 78' | 🟨 | Simone Davì · Sudtirol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sudtirol | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Marco Druso |
| coach days | 377.00 | 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1446.76 | 1427.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.04 | -19.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.30 | 0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 27.61 | 27.48 |
| state index | -0.70 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.32 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.11 |