← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Perri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 43% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| Spezia win | 28% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena +0.25 | 50% | 1.90 |
| Spezia +0.25 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.60 |
| Over | 41% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | — · Modena |
| 25' | 🟨 | Fellipe Jack · Spezia |
| 37' | 🟨 | Niklas Pyyhtiä · Modena |
| 60' | 🟨 | Yanis Massolin · Modena |
| 68' | 🟨 | Fellipe Jack · Spezia |
| 68' | 🟥 | Fellipe Jack · Spezia |
| 72' | 🟨 | Filippo Bandinelli · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Salvatore Esposito · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Magnino · Modena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francesco Zampano · Modena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Tonoli · Modena |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ettore Gliozzi · Modena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 28 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 24 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| coach days | 12.00 | 165.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1478.11 | 1490.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.99 | -8.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 14.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 4.81 | 5.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | 0.77 |
| solidity v1 | -0.04 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.73 |