← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reggiana win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.05 |
| Padova win | 26% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reggiana −0.25 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Padova −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Manuel Marras · Reggiana |
| 36' | ⚽ | Filippo Sgarbi · Padova |
| 49' | ⚽ | Tobías Reinhart · Reggiana |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jonas Harder · Padova |
| 76' | ⚽ | Alessandro Seghetti · Padova |
| 88' | 🟨 | Andrea Papetti · Reggiana |
| 89' | 🟨 | Carlo Faedo · Padova |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniele Baselli · Padova |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reggiana | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
| coach days | 287.00 | 560.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1440.95 | 1415.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.26 | -11.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| league points | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | -0.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.70 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 0.98 |