← Serie B 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Massimi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mantova win | 40% | 2.30 |
| Reggiana win | 30% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reggiana −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Mantova −0.25 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Andrea Bozzolan · Reggiana |
| 40' | 🟨 | Stefano Cella · Mantova |
| 53' | ⚽ | Tobías Reinhart · Reggiana |
| 60' | 🟨 | Tobías Reinhart · Reggiana |
| 75' | 🟨 | Nicholas Bonfanti · Mantova |
| 83' | 🟨 | Simone Bonetti · Reggiana |
| 89' | 🟥 | Charlys · Reggiana |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mantova | Reggiana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Danilo Martelli |
| coach days | 129.00 | 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1408.61 | 1429.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.36 | -11.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| league points | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | -0.38 |
| solidity v1 | -0.84 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.07 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.29 |