← Serie B 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 8, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Niccolo Turrini, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 57% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
| Catanzaro win | 15% | 6.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena −0.75 | 52% | 1.83 |
| Catanzaro −0.75 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Davide Bettella · Catanzaro |
| 31' | ⚽ | Pedro Mendes · Modena |
| 52' | 🟨 | Tommaso Cassandro · Catanzaro |
| 66' | ⚽ | Matias Antonini · Catanzaro |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Filippo Pittarello · Catanzaro |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| coach days | 160.00 | 160.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1502.52 | 1491.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.64 | 13.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 44.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| league points | 26.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 9.67 | 8.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | 0.13 |
| solidity v1 | 0.95 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.22 |