← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 7, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Federico Dionisi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 40% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.05 |
| Empoli win | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli +0.25 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Palermo +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Jérémy Le Douaron · Palermo |
| 14' | 🟨 | Jacopo Segre · Palermo |
| 18' | ⚽ | Joel Pohjanpalo · Palermo |
| 33' | 🟨 | Bartosz Bereszyński · Palermo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Pietro Pellegri · Empoli |
| 63' | ⚽ | Pietro Pellegri · Empoli |
| 74' | ⚽ | Joel Pohjanpalo · Palermo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brando Moruzzi · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 128.00 | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1526.88 | 1514.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.27 | -11.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 40.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 20.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 8.09 | 7.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 0.57 |
| solidity v1 | 1.39 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.84 |