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Juve Stabia 2–2 AC Monza

← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta, Italy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AC Monza win45%2.05
Draw32%2.85
Juve Stabia win23%4.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AC Monza +0.2553%1.78
Juve Stabia +0.2547%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.53
Over39%2.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Giacomo Stabile · Juve Stabia
19'⚽Samuele Birindelli · AC Monza
26'🟨Patrick Ciurria · AC Monza
28'🟨Luca Ravanelli · AC Monza
31'⚽Leonardo Candellone · Juve Stabia
49'🟨Samuele Birindelli · AC Monza
64'🟨Armando Izzo · AC Monza
68'⚽Andrea Petagna · AC Monza
71'🟨Alessandro Gabrielloni · Juve Stabia
71'🟨Demba Thiam · AC Monza
83'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots11
4On target5
3Corners5
13Fouls15
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricJuve StabiaAC Monza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.580.71
cards avg (last 5)2.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Romeo Menti
Fabio Maistro
· Juve Stabia
coach days121.00152.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.13
corner diff avg (last 5)2.003.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.206.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.372.12
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.07
dominance (last 5)0.510.66
elo1471.761552.49
elo momentum (last 5)-4.7655.09
eye test v1-0.320.41
eye trend v10.03-0.33
first sub minute (last 10)51.3055.60
form points (last 5)7.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.620.85
league points17.0029.00
league rank11.001.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0085.40
possession avg (last 5)50.4058.00
rest days5.776.91
scorer concentration0.250.22
season ppg1.422.23
shot diff avg (last 5)0.806.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.8015.80
skill v1-0.220.98
solidity v10.831.42
sot against avg (last 5)2.801.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.80
state index-0.021.03
sterile dominance v10.230.54
threat rate (last 10)0.220.28
threat rate (last 3)0.210.26
threat rate (last 5)0.240.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.021.02
xg for avg (last 5)0.781.57