← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Mario Perri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 56% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
| Carrarese win | 17% | 5.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Palermo −0.75 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Carrarese −0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.83 |
| Under | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Jacopo Segre · Palermo |
| 30' | 🟨 | Antonio Palumbo · Palermo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Julián Illanes · Carrarese |
| 44' | ⚽ | Antonio Palumbo · Palermo |
| 48' | ⚽ | Joel Pohjanpalo · Palermo |
| 72' | 🟨 | Aljoša Vasić · Palermo |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mattia Finotto · Carrarese |
| 80' | 🟨 | Nicolò Calabrese · Carrarese |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Joel Pohjanpalo · Palermo |
| 88' | ⚽ | Joel Pohjanpalo · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Palermo | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Renzo Barbera |
| coach days | 151.00 | 698.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1500.43 | 1457.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.37 | -14.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.80 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 7.19 | 7.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.62 |
| solidity v1 | -0.36 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.30 |