← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Rapuano, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol win | 47% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| Avellino win | 24% | 3.80 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Avellino −0.5 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Sudtirol −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.65 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Tommaso Biasci · Avellino |
| 17' | 🟨 | Simone Tronchin · Sudtirol |
| 41' | 🟨 | Mamadou Coulibaly · Sudtirol |
| 67' | 🟨 | Emanuele Pecorino · Sudtirol |
| 70' | 🟨 | Giovanni Daffara · Avellino |
| 90' | 🟨 | Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 22 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sudtirol | Avellino |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Marco Druso |
| coach days | 363.00 | 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1448.40 | 1386.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.66 | -36.27 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 45.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | — |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.56 |
| league points | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.80 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.09 | 0.69 |
| solidity v1 | -0.74 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.87 | -1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.45 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.25 | 1.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.52 | 1.24 |