← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mattia Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.05 |
| Bari win | 25% | 3.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli −0.25 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Bari −0.25 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Dickmann · Bari |
| 39' | 🟨 | Francesco Vicari · Bari |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gabriele Guarino · Empoli |
| 52' | ⚽ | Stiven Shpendi · Empoli |
| 64' | 🟨 | Joseph Ceesay · Empoli |
| 66' | ⚽ | Gerard Yepes · Empoli |
| 89' | ⚽ | Pietro Pellegri · Empoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joseph Ceesay · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 120.00 | 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 3.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1514.60 | 1433.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.78 | -0.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 44.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | -0.20 |
| solidity v1 | 0.86 | -1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 0.93 |