← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Federico Dionisi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mantova win | 40% | 2.35 |
| Spezia win | 31% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia −0.25 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Mantova −0.25 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Giuseppe Aurelio · Spezia |
| 10' | 🟨 | Francesco Cassata · Spezia |
| 21' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Di Serio · Spezia |
| 33' | 🟨 | Przemyslaw Wiśniewski · Spezia |
| 33' | ⚽ | Francesco Ruocco · Mantova |
| 53' | 🟨 | Stefano Cella · Mantova |
| 58' | ⚽ | Stefano Cella · Mantova |
| 81' | ⚽ | Tommaso Marras · Mantova |
| 84' | 🟨 | Filippo Bandinelli · Spezia |
| 87' | 🟨 | Cristiano Bani · Mantova |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francesco Cassata |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 9 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mantova | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Danilo Martelli |
| 90' | 🟥 | Francesco Cassata · Spezia |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tommaso Marras · Mantova |
| coach days | 114.00 | 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1397.58 | 1482.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.02 | -7.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.20 | -0.38 |
| solidity v1 | — | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.53 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | — | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | — | 1.21 |