← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Perenzoni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carrarese win | 53% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
| Reggiana win | 21% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carrarese −0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Reggiana −0.5 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.83 |
| Over | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Matteo Rover · Reggiana |
| 35' | 🟨 | Natan Girma · Reggiana |
| 46' | 🟨 | Andrea Papetti · Reggiana |
| 52' | 🟨 | Massimo Bertagnoli · Reggiana |
| 57' | 🟨 | Giangiacomo Magnani · Reggiana |
| 69' | 🟨 | Tommaso Rubino · Carrarese |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carrarese | Reggiana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio dei Marmi |
| coach days | 691.00 | 266.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1459.83 | 1436.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.26 | -2.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | — |
| league points | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | -0.49 |
| solidity v1 | 0.05 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 0.84 |