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Catanzaro 3–3 Pescara

← Serie B 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 21, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Luca Massimi, Italy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Catanzaro win61%1.51
Draw25%3.70
Pescara win14%6.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pescara −152%1.83
Catanzaro −148%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.90
Under50%1.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Antonio Di Nardo · Pescara
20'🟨Matteo Dagasso · Pescara
21'⚽Nicolò Brighenti · Catanzaro
37'⚽Tommaso Corazza · Pescara
46'⚽Filippo Pittarello · Catanzaro
55'🟨Gabriele Corbo · Pescara
59'🟨Nicolò Brighenti · Catanzaro
74'🟨Fabrizio Caligara · Pescara
80'🟨Ruggero Frosinini · Catanzaro
82'⚽Nicolò Buso · Catanzaro
83'🟨Nicolò Buso · Catanzaro
87'🟨Filippo Pittarello · Catanzaro
90'🟨Matias Antonini · Catanzaro
90'⚽Tommaso Corazza · Pescara

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
19Shots8
8On target4
7Corners4
13Fouls22
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCatanzaroPescara
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.720.53
cards avg (last 5)2.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Nicola Ceravolo
coach days143.00112.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.607.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.072.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.14
dominance (last 5)0.440.43
elo1493.321312.98
elo momentum (last 5)12.29-12.94
eye test v1-0.030.25
eye trend v10.220.08
first sub minute (last 10)46.3048.40
form points (last 5)9.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
keeper form v10.730.66
league points15.008.00
league rank11.0018.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.008.00
matches since win1.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8082.40
possession avg (last 5)47.4044.60
rest days13.2312.14
scorer concentration0.420.21
season ppg1.250.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.2014.40
skill v10.040.09
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.40
state index0.09-1.32
sterile dominance v1-0.24-0.69
threat rate (last 10)0.270.28
threat rate (last 3)0.270.37
threat rate (last 5)0.270.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20