← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mattia Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 54% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
| Avellino win | 19% | 4.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Avellino −0.75 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Cesena −0.75 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.78 |
| Over | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Francesco Patierno · Avellino |
| 27' | ⚽ | Riccardo Ciervo · Cesena |
| 29' | 🟨 | Matteo Francesconi · Cesena |
| 35' | 🟨 | Alessandro Fontanarosa · Avellino |
| 45' | 🟨 | Michele Rigione · Avellino |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Cristian Shpendi · Cesena |
| 51' | ⚽ | Jalen Blesa · Cesena |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jalen Blesa · Cesena |
| 61' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Sounas · Avellino |
| 83' | 🟨 | Riccardo Ciervo · Cesena |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cesena | Avellino |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Dino Manuzzi |
| coach days | 100.00 | 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1491.44 | 1412.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.86 | -23.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |