← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Simone Galipo, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 36% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.82 |
| Catanzaro win | 31% | 2.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro −0.25 | 56% | 1.68 |
| Empoli −0.25 | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Nosa Edward Obaretin · Empoli |
| 31' | 🟨 | Bogdan Popov · Empoli |
| 44' | 🟨 | Bogdan Popov · Empoli |
| 44' | 🟥 | Bogdan Popov · Empoli |
| 55' | 🟨 | Davide Bettella · Catanzaro |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Stiven Shpendi · Empoli |
| 66' | 🟨 | Nicolò Brighenti · Catanzaro |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mirko Pigliacelli · Catanzaro |
| 70' | 🟨 | Gerard Yepes · Empoli |
| 72' | 🟨 | Andrea Fulignati · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gabriele Alesi |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 99.00 | 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1490.34 | 1501.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.43 | 12.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.31 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | — |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | — |