← Serie B 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 7, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Andrea Calzavara, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 47% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 31% | 2.95 |
| Bari win | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bari −0.5 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Spezia −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Christian Gytkjær · Bari |
| 36' | 🟨 | Rachid Kouda · Spezia |
| 36' | ⚽ | Rachid Kouda · Spezia |
| 42' | 🟨 | Rachid Kouda · Spezia |
| 42' | 🟥 | Rachid Kouda · Spezia |
| 47' | 🟨 | Dimitris Nikolaou · Bari |
| 79' | 🟨 | Raffaele Pucino · Bari |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francesco Cassata · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonio Candela · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 12 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| coach days | 98.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1485.80 | 1439.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.10 | 11.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 45.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 5.14 | 5.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | 0.59 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | — |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | — |