← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 2, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza win | 55% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
| Spezia win | 19% | 5.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza −0.5 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Spezia −0.5 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Patrick Ciurria · AC Monza |
| 53' | 🟨 | Gianluca Lapadula · Spezia |
| 53' | ⚽ | Luca Ravanelli · AC Monza |
| 75' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 79' | 🟨 | Fellipe Jack · Spezia |
| 85' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 85' | 🟥 | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Brianteo |
| coach days | 124.00 | 93.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1529.35 | 1493.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 55.79 | -8.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.93 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 4.86 | 3.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.84 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |