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Catanzaro 2–1 Venezia FC

← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Perenzoni, Italy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC win45%2.05
Draw29%3.20
Catanzaro win26%3.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC +0.2553%1.78
Catanzaro +0.2547%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.70
Over45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'🟨Kike Pérez · Venezia FC
54'⚽Pietro Iemmello · Catanzaro
59'⚽John Yeboah · Venezia FC
60'🟨Patrick Amiamo Nuamah · Catanzaro
60'🟨Michael Svoboda · Venezia FC
74'🟨Andrea Adorante · Venezia FC
80'⚽Gabriele Alesi · Catanzaro
86'🟨Antoine Hainaut · Venezia FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots21
5On target2
2Corners5
13Fouls17
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCatanzaroVenezia FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.600.51
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Nicola Ceravolo
coach days124.00124.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.222.15
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.07
dominance (last 5)0.530.68
elo1491.481567.34
elo momentum (last 5)1.3413.18
eye test v10.420.70
eye trend v10.400.17
first sub minute (last 10)52.4057.30
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
keeper form v10.720.77
league points12.0016.00
league rank14.006.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.8084.60
possession avg (last 5)53.0062.80
rest days3.773.77
scorer concentration0.500.15
season ppg1.201.60
shot diff avg (last 5)2.007.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.8017.20
skill v10.671.46
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.40
state index0.020.49
sterile dominance v10.060.69
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.340.30
threat rate (last 5)0.290.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80