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Palermo 5–0 Pescara

← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Andrea Zanotti, Italy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo win69%1.33
Draw18%5.00
Pescara win13%7.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo −1.2553%1.80
Pescara −1.2547%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.70
Under45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Niccolò Pierozzi · Palermo
32'🟨Julian Brandes · Pescara
47'⚽Jacopo Segre · Palermo
58'⚽Niccolò Pierozzi · Palermo
71'🟨Bartosz Bereszyński · Palermo
72'⚽Matteo Brunori · Palermo
73'🟨Matteo Brunori · Palermo
75'🟨Matteo Dagasso · Pescara
80'🟨Aljoša Vasić · Palermo
83'⚽Salim Diakité · Palermo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots10
10On target3
6Corners5
12Fouls9
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPalermoPescara
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.720.56
cards avg (last 5)2.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Renzo Barbera
coach days123.0092.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.422.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.10
dominance (last 5)0.440.42
elo1505.131329.91
elo momentum (last 5)-24.61-4.49
eye test v1-0.850.10
eye trend v1-0.270.66
first sub minute (last 10)49.4050.40
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
keeper form v10.710.69
league points16.008.00
league rank5.0017.00
matches since blank0.0010.00
matches since clean sheet4.006.00
matches since win3.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2080.40
possession avg (last 5)47.4050.40
rest days3.963.96
scorer concentration0.400.21
season ppg1.600.80
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.60-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.8014.00
skill v1-0.290.28
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.20
state index-0.48-1.05
sterile dominance v10.02-0.24
threat rate (last 10)0.280.28
threat rate (last 3)0.270.40
threat rate (last 5)0.220.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.20