← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Perri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Padova win | 37% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 32% | 2.85 |
| Sudtirol win | 31% | 2.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol −0.25 | 56% | 1.68 |
| Padova −0.25 | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol |
| 57' | 🟨 | Antonio Barreca · Padova |
| 61' | 🟨 | Alessandro Capelli · Padova |
| 65' | 🟨 | Federico Davi · Sudtirol |
| 77' | 🟨 | Luca Di Maggio · Padova |
| 81' | 🟨 | Davide Mancini · Sudtirol |
| 84' | 🟨 | Salvatore Molina · Sudtirol |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Mattia Bortolussi · Padova |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonas Harder · Padova |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Padova | Sudtirol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Euganeo |
| coach days | 518.00 | 335.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1427.81 | 1444.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.94 | -34.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 62.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 32.80 |
| rest days | 2.77 | 2.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -2.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -2.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |