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Avellino 4–3 Reggiana

← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Luca Massimi, Italy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Avellino win44%2.10
Draw30%3.05
Reggiana win26%3.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Avellino −0.2552%1.83
Reggiana −0.2548%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.70
Over45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽ (og)Lorenco Šimić · Reggiana
25'🟨Tommaso Biasci · Avellino
25'🟨Andrea Papetti · Reggiana
32'⚽ (pen)Roberto Insigne · Avellino
47'🟨Luca Palmiero · Avellino
50'⚽Tommaso Biasci · Avellino
55'⚽Andrija Novakovich · Reggiana
57'🟨Alessandro Milani · Avellino
62'⚽Andrija Novakovich · Reggiana
64'⚽Lorenco Šimić · Avellino
67'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots15
5On target4
4Corners4
15Fouls21
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAvellinoReggiana
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.42
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.05
box share (last 5)0.590.62
cards avg (last 5)2.203.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi
Manolo Portanova
· Reggiana
70'⚽Martin Palumbo · Avellino
86'🟨Filippo Missori · Avellino
90'🟨Cedric Gondo · Reggiana
coach days92.00245.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.22
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.401.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.832.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.13
dominance (last 5)0.410.41
elo1403.171451.21
elo momentum (last 5)-31.6625.59
eye test v10.10-0.27
eye trend v1-0.020.37
first sub minute (last 10)55.9048.20
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.320.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.20
keeper form v1—0.71
league points13.0015.00
league rank11.007.00
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0081.20
possession avg (last 5)52.2043.40
rest days3.673.67
scorer concentration0.180.21
season ppg1.301.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.00-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.409.00
skill v10.73-0.09
sot against avg (last 5)6.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.60
state index-0.87-0.14
sterile dominance v10.460.15
threat rate (last 10)0.210.21
threat rate (last 3)0.230.20
threat rate (last 5)0.240.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80