← Serie B 2025-26 · Wed, Oct 29, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Ivano Pezzuto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 54% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Padova win | 18% | 5.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia −0.5 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Padova −0.5 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Francesco Belli · Padova |
| 17' | ⚽ | Gianluca Lapadula · Spezia |
| 30' | 🟨 | Pietro Fusi · Padova |
| 59' | 🟨 | Marco Perrotta · Padova |
| 66' | ⚽ | Kevin Lasagna · Padova |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ádám Nagy · Spezia |
| 83' | 🟨 | Antonio Barreca · Padova |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Varas Marcillo · Padova |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonas Harder · Padova |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| coach days | 89.00 | 515.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1505.06 | 1417.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.92 | 20.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 4.27 | 3.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.53 | 28.14 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |