← Serie B 2025-26 · Wed, Oct 29, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Matteo Marchetti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mantova win | 39% | 2.40 |
| Catanzaro win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro −0.25 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Mantova −0.25 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Leonardo Mancuso · Mantova |
| 60' | 🟨 | Simone Trimboli · Mantova |
| 68' | ⚽ (og) | Zan Majer · Catanzaro |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nicolò Brighenti · Catanzaro |
| 75' | ⚽ | Alphadjo Cissè · Catanzaro |
| 80' | ⚽ | Costantino Favasuli · Catanzaro |
| 89' | 🟨 | Matias Antonini · Catanzaro |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mantova | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Danilo Martelli |
| coach days | 89.00 | 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1389.24 | 1477.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.19 | -14.35 |
| eye test v1 | 1.63 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 91.00 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 3.14 | 4.08 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.44 | 0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.83 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |